Best Picture:
The Nominees:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will be Blood
Who Will Win?
Conventional wisdom leans toward No Country for Old Men, which is probably the most widely acclaimed movie by critics. Also in No Country’s favor is the fact that its brilliance is easy to see by more than just the ultra-film literate, it’s one of those rare films that works both as high art and as accessible entertainment.
The Dark Horse?
There Will Be Blood is probably too dark and too complicated to win the big award, however because it seems to appeal to the same audience as No Country, it could act as a vote siphon to that film leaving the door open to one of the other nominees to steal the award. Michael Clayton is widely respected, but very few seem to really think it’s the absolute best. Atonement, certainly seems like the most Oscar-ish of the nominees and its won a number of important precursors, but its failure to land nominations in other important fields like Best Director indicates a lack of support among Academy members. As such, the most likely spoiler for No Country seems to be Juno. The film has been charming people across the country and could be seen as a relief from its dark and depressing competitors. When I walked out of the theater after seeing Juno I was ready to declare it the best film of the year, a few days later I came to my senses about that, but if I had an academy ballot at the time I’m not sure what I would have done.
Who Should Win?
There will Be Blood was my favorite film of the year, but this is one of those rare years where I would be somewhat happy with any of the nominees winning. No Country for Old Men is incredibly strong, Juno is the type of movie that doesn’t usually get to win, Michael Clayton is also solid. Atonement is probably the film I least want to win, just because it’s a really safe choice, but it certainly isn’t bad.
Who Got Snubbed?
The Diving Bell and Butterfly was a beautiful film that almost certainly would have gotten its well deserved nomination if it weren’t a foreign language film. But the film I was even more disappointed to see absent from the shortlist was the great Sean Penn film Into the Wild which managed to form a great tragedy from the life of a fairly unsympathetic character.
Best Director:
The Nominees:
Jason Reitman- Juno
Tony Gilroy- Michael Clayton
Joel & Ethan Coen- No Country for Old Men
Julian Schnabel- The Diving Bell and Butterfly
Paul Thomas Anderson- There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win?
Comedy directors usually have even more trouble getting Oscars than the films they direct, so Jason Reitman likely doesn’t have a serious chance. With him and the un-nominated Joe Wright eliminated as vote siphons, The Coen Brothers shouldn’t have much of a problem winning this one.
Who’s The Dark Horse?
When a director is nominated for a film that fails to receive a best picture nomination its usually more of a sign of respect than an indication of any real likely hood of winning. As such Julian Schnabel likely will not be going home with a statuette despite some success in precursor awards. As such, Paul Thomas Anderson seems like the only one who can pull an upset in this category.
Who Should Win?
I generally find that whatever wins best picture should also win best director, thus my official choice is Paul Thomas Anderson. However, The Coen Brothers are a bit more overdue, and I might be even a little more happy to see then walk away with an Oscar. Schabel also turned in solid work worthy of an award.
Who Got Snubbed?
Of the two films overlooked for Best Picture, I would have rather seen Sean Penn get thrown a Best Director consolation prize than Schnabel. I’m also not quite sure why they didn’t want to honor Joe Wright for Atonement, that film was certainly a director’s piece.
Best Actor:
The Nominees:
Viggo Mortenson- Eastern Promises
Tommy Lee Jones- In the Valley of Elah
George Clooney- Michael Clayton
Johnny Depp- Sweeney Todd
Daniel Day-Lewis- There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win?
Daniel Day-Lewis is such a front runner that this shouldn’t even need to be discussed. He’s such a foregone conclusion that George Clooney has conceded defeat to Day-Lewis during an interview.
Who Will Be the Dark Horse?
Almost everyone has called Daniel Day-Lewis’ win a sure thing, but they also said that about his performance in Gangs of New York five years ago, and that year he lost to Adrian Brody. If there is an upset it might just go to Tommy Lee Jones, I havn’t seen the film but many people might be a bit more attracted to Jones’ naturalism than Day-Lewis’ theatricality.
Who Should Win?
I may sound like a broken record here, but all of Daniel Day-Lewis’ acclaim is completely warranted, it’s definitely the best performance of the year. That said I’m rather fond of some of the creative choices the Academy made with the nominations here, namely Viggo Mortenson’s great work in Eastern Promises. I was not however, fond of Johnny Depp’s boring work in Sweeney Todd, he goes through pretty much the whole film with a blank face and generally isn’t up to his own standards.
Who Got Snubbed?
Samuel L. Jackson gave some of the best work of his career in Black Snake Moan, but the film was never taken very seriously. Christian Bale gave us some great work in Rescue Dawn, but that film never really had enough buzz around it to get this far. I also would have loved to see Don Cheadle get a nomination for his fun performance in Talk to Me, but like the other actors I just mentioned, his film just didn’t stay in the public conscious.
Best Actress:
The Nominees:
Julie Christie- Away From Her
Cate Blanchett: Elizabeth- The Golden Age
Ellen Page- Juno
Laura Linney- The Savages
Marian Cotilliard- La Vie En Rose
Who Will Win?
This is one of the more competitive categories, and there are three major front runners. Julie Christie has a nostalgic appeal and has the usual Oscar performance hook of playing someone with a mental illness. Marion Cotilliard fits in with the longstanding trend of people winning Oscars for imitating a famous person. Ellen Page probably does the most with challenging material. Julie Christie is the front runner, but I think I’m going to predict Page to pull an upset, she’s clearly the center of that beloved film that they’re going to want to honor somewhere and her detractors will probably be split between Christie and Cotilliard.
Who’s the Dark Horse?
Cate Blanchett is lucky to have even been nominated for her performance in the widely hated Elizabeth: The Golden Age, and The Savages just isn’t a popular enough film for Laura Linney to have a chance. Since I’m predicting the dark horse to win, I guess that means Julie Christie has the second best chance of winning.
Who Should Win?
Ellen Page deserves to win this award, as she has the most challenging role of the bunch. She needs to create a very memorable character that anchors an entire film, at the same time she has to embody the spirit of a teenage girl while pulling off tricky lines. I hated La Vie En Rose and thout Away From Her Was over-rated. To me Ellen Page is in a league above the rest of the nominees.
Who Got Snubbed?
Angelina Jolie gave a great performance in A Mighty Heart, but that film’s coldness was probably a bit too much for most of the voters. I also rather liked Helena Bonham Carter’s turn in Sweeney Todd.
Best Supporting Actor:
The Nominees:
Casey Affleck- The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Phillip Seymour Hoffman- Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook- Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson- Michael Clayton
Javier Bardem- No Country for Old Men
Who Will Win?
Javier Bardem is the absolute frontrunner here, anyone else winning would be a dramatic upset. Here Bardem creates an extremely memorable villain along the lines of Hannibal Lecter, and this will get him far in this year that seems to be looking more toward character creating than simple mimicry.
Who’s the Dark Horse?
Casey Affleck and Phillip Seymour Hoffman are both in movies that have little or no momentum, and many disagree with Affleck’s classification as supporting in the first place. Hal Holbrook could get support from those seeking to give him a lifetime achievement award, but his part is rather small and the film was not loved by the Academy judging from its low nomination count. Tom Wilkinson has a slight shot, Michael Clayton was clearly a well liked film and he’s overdue for an Oscar, but I doubt either of these sentiments are strong enough to topple the behemoth that is Javier Bardem this year.
Who Should Win?
I’m in complete agreement with the buzz surrounding Javier Bardem’s work in No Country, and definitely endorse his nearly eventual win. In all fairness, I haven’t seen Charlie Wilson’s War or The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, but I doubt either of those performances could live up to Bardem’s brilliant work in No Country.
Who Got Snubbed?
Chris Cooper’s performance in Breach was so good many mistakenly believed it was a lead role, unfortunately few remembered the film which was released last February. Kurt Russell’s work in Grindhouse was also awesome, but almost no one took the film seriously enough to award him. Irfan Khan also gave a stunning performance in The Namesake, but that film never really seen widely.
Best Supporting Actress:
The Nominees:
Ruby Dee- American Gangster
Saorise Ronan- Atonement
Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchet- I’m Not There
Tilda Swinton- Michael Clayton
Who Will Win?
This is one of the hardest categories to predict because most of the precursors have been all over the map. Cate Blanchet and Amy Ryan are the conventional front runners and both have pros and cons in their favor. Blanchett has the impressive act of playing a man to her name, but some could be just as turned off by that and the general weirdness of the movie. Ryan on the other hand gives a large performance as a deglamorized woman, which is a role that has worked in the past for actresses like Charlize Theron and Hillary Swank. I’m tempted to lean toward Blanchett, but Amy Ryan ultimately seems like the safer choice.
Who’s The Dark Horse?
Ruby Dee will have a large lifetime achievement sentiment in her favor, and has had luck with precursors. She also has the benefit of being one of the most memorable elements of a very crowded movie. Saorise Ronan probably won’t be taken very seriously, the Academy has a long record of nominating child actors in this category, but never gives the award to the novelty choice. Tilda Swinton has none of the easily categorized benefits of her competitors, but could sneak in if there’s enough vote splitting and the voters want to honor Michael Clayton somewhere.
Who Should Win?
Blanchett’s casting in I’m Not There may be viewed as a gimmicky stunt, but it really isn’t. It really was a rather brilliant move by Todd Haynes which allows for a deeper examination of Dylan’s character in that segment of the film than a more conventional choice would have offered. Additionally the movie offers five other more gender appropriate actors to compare her two and she seems to outshine them all.
Who Got Snubbed?
Katherine Keener should have been nominated for her memorable, yet down to earth work in Into the Wild. Jennifer Garner should have been honored for the sadness and reality she inserts into Juno. And like Irfan Khan, the bollywood actress Tabu should have been honored for the great work she did in The Namesake.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Nominees:
Atonement
Away From Her
The Diving Bell and Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win?
I’m predicting an overall surge for No Country for Old Men, but it’s a little more vulnerable here then it is in the director category simply because many may overlook its script in favor of the visual elements. If that is the case it will probably go to Atonement, otherwise the Coens have this one in the bag.
Who’s the Dark Horse?
As previously stated, Atonement could take this if No Country is ignored. Away From Her and The Diving Bell and Butterfly both failed to garner best picture nominations, so their screenplay prospects seem a bit limited. Like in most catagories, There Will Be Blood seems to suffer the same drawbacks as No Country except to an even great extent, so it’s unlikely to win unless that movie surges.
Who Should Win?
No Country for Old Men follows its book so closely that it’s almost more like a transcript than a creative work, it made for a great film but I wouldn’t necessarily award the Coen Brothers for that part of the film making process this time. I might want to give it to There Will be Blood, but that script really is pretty insane. So, I’m thinking I might give this to The Diving Bell and Butterfly which uses a unique source to great effect, its solid and avoids the syrup this could have turned into.
Who Was Snubbed?
I would have liked to see Into the Wild get in here, but that’s the only real snub, otherwise this is a pretty solid category.
Best Original Screenplay:
The Nominees:
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
Who Will Win?
All conventional wisdom seems to point toward a big win here for Juno. Writer Diablo Cody’s Cinderella story has been widely publicized at this will definitely give her an edge. Voters will also be able to easily identify the film’s highly stylized dialogue. Breakout Indie comedies like Sideways and Little Miss Sunshine have done well in the screenplay category and this will probably be no exception.
Who’s the Dark Horse?
Anyone interested in voting for a quirky comedy will likely vote for Juno rather than Lars and the Real Girl or The Savages. Ratatouille’s nomination is probably little more than a courtesy in a weak category. Michael Clayton is probably the only real contender to be a spoiler here, and it may have more of a chance than many people seem to think. It’s a very well respected and well structured thriller and the phrase “honest to blog” is nowhere to be seen in it.
Who Should Win?
I think I’m going to support the dark horse here and go with Michael Clayton. The film has great pacing, story structure, and dialogue. Juno’s dialogue works but only because the actors were able to do wonders with strange material.
Who Was Snubbed?
Knocked Up was, if nothing else, the funniest writing of the year and it manages to do so without abandoning a somewhat realistic story. Alex Garland also should have been nominated for the criminally underlooked sci-fi film Sunshine. The screenplay to the Palm d’or winning The Wind That Shakes the Barley also would have been a welcome addition.
Best Foreign Language Film:
The Nominees:
The Counterfeiters- Austria
Beaufort- Israel
Mongol- Kazakhstan
Katyn – Poland
12- Russia
Who Will Win?
Idiotic rules and stupid nominating committees have made it so none of the best foreign language movies of the year were even eligible this year. As such we are left with this deeply uninspired list of movies that haven’t even received domestic distribution. 12 has the highest IMDB score, for whatever that’s worth, but it sounds like a 12 Angry Men rip-off. Beaufort sounds fairly topical, but it was the country’s second choice after the disqualified film The Band’s Visit, so it can’t be that great. The Counterfeiters is set during World War II and that’s always a good sign, but Katyn is also set during world war two and was done by the fairly well known veteran filmmaker Andrzej Wajda, so I’m going to guess that one.
Who Should Win?
See: Who got snubbed
Who Got Snubbed?
Each and every one of the major foreign language films to get a domestic release was disqualified for a variety of stupid reasons. Each country is only allowed to submit one film, as such France choose not to submit The Diving Bell and Butterfly or La Vie En Rose for mostly political reasons. The film they did submit, Persepolis, was not passed on to the shortlist by the nominating committee which is made up of mostly “retired academy members” (I.E. geezers). That same committee passed on the Palm d’or winning Romanian film 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days, the great Spanish horror film The Orphanage, the popular Hong Kong gangster film Exiled, the Hungarian horror film Taxidermia. At least those films had countries to submit them, Ang Lee’s Lust, Caution was ruled not be Taiwanese enough to be submitted by Taiwan. The Israeli film The Band’s Visit was ruled ineligible for having a few too many lines in English. Other notable foreign films that failed to find their way here for one reason or another include the South Korean monster film The Host, the Iranian feminist piece Offside, and the Japanese anime Paprika.
Best Documentary Feature:
The Nominees:
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance
Who Will Win, Who’s the Dark Horse?
I think I see a pattern here. Of the five nominees: two are directly about the war in Iraq (No End in Sight and Operation Homecoming), one deals with U.S. torture policy within the greater war on terror (Taxi to the Dark Side), one has the word “war” in the title and takes place in Uganda. The only non war related nominee is Sicko, Michael Moore’s look into the broken U.S. healthcare system. I’m guessing that Sicko will be the defacto choice for voters looking for something that doesn’t involve war. It’s probably the most mainstream and accessible of the nominees, and its definitely the highest grossing, so I’m going to guess it.
Who Should Win?
Michael Moore makes clever films but his style is begging to get a little predictable. I’d rather see this go to No End In Sight, a well researched examination of how the war in Iraq went so wrong. It might not be as entertaining as Sicko, but it a more mature work and ultimately the more persuasive.
Who Was Snubbed?
Helvetica, is a fascinating documentary about graphic design focusing on the Helvetica font. In the Shadow of the Moon is also a very well made documentary about the familiar subject of the moon landing.
Best Animated Feature:
The Nominees:
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf’s Up
Who Will Win, Who’s the Dark Horse?
Ratatouile is the clear winner here. It has significantly more box office prowess than its competitors and more unanimous critical praise. Persepolis would have a chance if the shortsighted Academy were able to see that animation is a viable medium for adult oriented films.
Who Should Win?
I have not seen any of these movies, however I would like to see Persepolis, which is more than I can say about the other nominees.
Who Was Snubbed?
The academy has never been comfortable nominating adult oriented films in this category, and it’s a miracle that Persepolis managed to find its way in. I would have liked to see Beowulf find its way in, or the great anime film Paprika.
Best Cinematography:
The Nominees:
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
The Diving Bell and Butterfly
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win?
This award usually focuses less on innovative camera movement and is usually more interested in a certain pristine, often golden, look. Innovation usually takes a backseat to aesthetic beauty. As such I’m thinking this might be going to There Will Be Blood, I don’t entirely agree with this but many will probably not be as fussy about the black levels as I am.
Who’s the Dark Horse?
Many are hoping this will be Roger Deakin’s year as he is nominated for both No Country for Old Men and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. Unfortunately Assassination is better work while No Country is more widely seen, for that reason I’m predicting a Deakins vote split. Because beauty is more valued than camera movement I don’t see Diving Bell and Butterfly or Atonement doing well either. If anything beats There Will be Blood, it will probably be Atonement.
Who Should Win?
I definitely would like to see Deakins finally win, and I’m leaning toward giving it to The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
Who got Snubbed?
The best cinematography I saw this year was in Sweeney Todd, a movie with a very creative look and great black levels. Into the Wild was snubbed yet again in this category. I also would have loved to see Zodiac here for its great digital cinematography.
Best Editing:
The Nominees:
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win?
Four of the last five editing awards have gone to the best picture winner, the one exception being the dialogue heavy Million Dollar Baby which lost to the more epic The Aviator. So it would seem that No Country For Old Men should take this one. The one question is whether or not the voters will be turned off by the Roderick Jaynes silliness.
Who’s the Dark Horse?
As usual, No Country’s biggest competitor is going to be There Will Be Blood, this could turn into quite a duel between the two films. The Bourne Ultimatum’s rapid fire editing is awesome, but might be too much for some of the older traditionalist voters to handle. There’s a lot to respect in the invisible transitions and invisible cuts of Into the Wild and The Diving Bell and Butterfly.
Who Should Win?
All of these films have very nice editing, I could be happy with a win for any of them. In fact I probably prefer the editing in the three dark horses over the editing in the front runners. The best of the five is probably The Bourne Ultimatum; that film took the recent trend of rapid fire editing and truly mastered it.
Who Got Snubbed?
28 Weeks Later… was just as good a rapidfire editing as The Bourne Ultimatum was but never had a real shot at a nomination. Sunshine, was also a very well edited film that no one saw.
Best Art Direction:
The Nominees:
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win?
This award often goes to inventive fantasy-ish films so long as they have some general credibility in other categories. This would seem to place Sweeney Todd at a distinct advantage as it’s the only one that fits that description. Combine that with the good track record of Tim Burton movies in this category and the fact that it’s the best nominee and it looks like all but a sure thing.
Who’s the Dark Horse?
American Gangster manages to recreate 70s New York very well, and that could impress a lot of voters. There Will Be Blood or Atonement could ride their best picture buzz to a win as well.
Who Should Win?
The Academy dropped the ball I a big way in this category; the only film on my personal shortlist that made the nomination was Sweeny Todd. So that’s obviously the nominee I’m supporting. My number two choice is probably American Gangster.
Who Got Snubbed?
Regardless of how the voters saw the film as a whole, there should have been no denying that 300 was one of the most visually creative movies of the year. Sunshine also should have been acknowledged for the excellent hard sci-fi design on the ship the film takes place on. Pirates of the Carribean: At Worlds End was a terrible film, but there was some creative art direction in it. And I probably prefer the recreation of 60s San Francisco in Zodiac more than I like the recreation of 70s New York in American Gangster.
Best Costume Design:
The Nominees:
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie En Rose
Sweeney Todd
Who Will Win?
This award often goes toward movies that have the best opportunity to show off, which usually means period garb and also tends to lean toward elaborate female outfits. For that reason I’m leaning toward Elizabeth: The Golden Age for the win. I may regret that however, because some of costumes in Atonement have emerged as iconic images.
Who’s the Dark Horse?
Part of why I think Atonement could end up winning is that green dress that Keira Knightly was wearing. I have absolutely no interest whatsoever in fashion in any way, yet I still managed to notice that, imagine how much of an impact it would have had for someone who gives a crap about such things. La Vie En Rose also seems to fit the general pattern of victory in this category, but I doubt many will want to support that crappy movie after they actually see it. Across the Universe and Sweeney Todd are basically also rans here.
Who Should Win?
Atonement I guess, this is really something I don’t tend to pay much attention to.
Who got snubbed?
I don’t care.
Best Original Score:
The Nominees:
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
Who Will Win?
Memorability is key in this category moreso than quality. For this reason Atonement is at a huge advantage. I found Atonement’s score to be a gimmicky and overbearing distraction, but at least I remember it well. That’s more than I can say about the Michael Clayton and 3:10 to Yuma scores, that I don’t remember a note of.
Who’s the Dark Horse?
If any movie can beat Atonement here it might be The Kite Runner. This type of cross cultural music score has had a good track record in recent years with films like Babel, Brokeback Mountin and Frida taking it in recent years.
Who Should Win?
I may not remember the music from Michael Clayton or 3:10 to Yuma, but that likely means that they simply blended in with the movie well. Basically I’m rooting for every score except the Atonement score.
Who Got Snubbed?
Easily the most egregious snub was the There Will Be Blood score which was disqualified by the nominating committee because of its similarity to other published works by the composer Johnny Greenwood. That was easily the best score of the year and this injustice taints this entire category. Robert Rodriguez’s score on the Planet Terror portion of Grindhouse had one of the most hummable tunes of the year. 300’s score had a great fusion between conventional scoring, middle eastern music, and modern electronic. Eastern Promises effectively combined western and Slavic music. The Sunshine score was also a great fusion of traditional scoring and electronic.
Best Original Song:
The Nominees:
“Raise it Up”- August Rush
“Happy Working Song”- Enchanted
“So Close”- Enchanted
“That’s How You Know”- Enchanted
“Falling Slowly”- Once
Who Will Win, Who’s the Dark Horse?
The animated Disney-ish film usually manages to steal this award, which would seem to work in Enchanted’s favor. But since they saw it fit to nominate three songs from that film, there’s a good chance they will cancel each other out like what happened to Dreamgirls last year. As such, I’m going to go with the cult favorite of “Falling Slowly” from Once. The movie wasn’t seen by enough voters to really make it in other categories, but its following was loyal and should be excited to support it in the one category they can. If a song from Enchanted does pull through and make it will probably be “That’s How You Know.”
Who Should Win?
This category is usually poor, and this year is no exception. The nominators clearly wouldn’t know a good song if it came up and bit them in the ass, and the nominees this year are a testament to this. The songs from Enchanted are all sub-par parodies of Disney musical numbers that make little sence outside the context of the movie. The August Rush song is a slight improvement, but it’s still a pretty tired cliché of a secular church choir type song. “Falling Slowly” isn’t the type of music I generally go for, but it’s clearly better than the rest of this crap.
Who Got Snubbed?
Who didn’t? They could have nominated “Do You Feel Me” from American Gangster, three great Eddie Veder songs from Into the Wild, the original Bob Dyaln song “Huck’s Tune” from Lucky You, and all the funny rock parodies from Walk Hard.
Best Makeup:
The Nominees:
La Vie En Rose
Norbit
Pirates of the Carribean: At Worlds End
Who Will Win, Who’s the Dark Horse?
I highly doubt the academy will stoop giving any award to Norbit, one of the most universally hated movies of the year. The very nomination of this thing is an embarrassment to the Academy. As such it is a question of whether it will go to the effects extravaganza (Pirates of the Carribean: At World’s End) or to the French film (La Vie En Rose) for its old age makeup. I’m guessing they’ll go with the former as that’s been their usual MO for this category.
Who Should Win?
I’m happy to say I never sat through Norbit, and I’m happy to report that I sat through both of the other nominees, which are both dreadful. The makeup in La Vie En Rose is nothing short of hideous, the question is whether it is deliberately so. Marian Potilliard appears to be covered in entirely noticeable makeup, it looks like her face could melt at any time. This could be period accurate, but replicated crap is still crap. The prosthetic work in Pirates of the Carribean: At World’s End, is more mainstream, and thus boring makeup work, but at least I couldn’t see the seams.
Who Got Snubbed?
Pretty much every movie made this year. Specifically The Diving Bell and Butterfly.
Best Visual Effects:
The Nominees:
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers
Who Will Win, Who’s the Dark Horse?
This will probably go to the garbage film that was Transformers. It’s no secret that this is the category where voters like to honor bad summer blockbusters to appease the philistines who prefer them to the Best Picture nominees. The Golden Compass was a box office dud, so I doubt they’re going anywhere near that. Pirates of the Caribbean has a slightly better shot, but since the last installment of that series won last year, they’re probably going to spread the wealth.
Who Should Win?
Transformers is a bad movie, but I guess the explosions looked real enough.
Who Was Snubbed?
Sunshine, had some of the best, most seamless, and most creative effects of the year and it did it without anywhere near the budget of the nominated films. 300, also had some very nice effects that deserved to be honored. Spider-Man 3 was a disappointment, but it did have some top notch effects.
Best Sound:
The Nominees:
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country For Old Men
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
Transformers
Who Will Win, Who’s the Dark Horse?
This award, given to the film with the best overall sound mix of existing elements, is not easy to judge unless one watches the films with sound in mind. I’m going to predict Transformers because one of the technicians on the sound crew, Kevin O’Connell, has been nominated twenty times and has yet to win. The man has only failed to get an Oscar nomination six times in the last twenty four years. Otherwise they’ll probably go for the intense sound work from The Bourne Ultimatum. The team from No Country for Old Men could ride that films coat tails to the win, but as a rule for this category louder is better.
Who Should Win?
I think I’d probably play along with the louder is better trend, to a degree, and go with The Bourne Ultimatum. That was a good soundtrack to shake the theater with, that fight in Morocco alone should earn this award in my eyes. That said, there was some neat stuff going on with the No Country for Old Men soundscape.
Best Sound Effects Editing:
The Nominees:
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood
Transformers
Who Will Win, Who’s the Dark Horse
The difference between the two sound award tends to allude a lot of people, even the nominators if the fact that the categories share four of the five nominees is any indication. While the Best sound category gauges the best overall mix of existing sounds, Best Sound Effects Editing gauges the talent that was put into creating the sounds themselves. There’s no Kevin O’Connell in this category, but the transformation sound (wha-way-wha-wo) will probably earn Transformers a win here.
Who Should Win?
This award should belong to No Country For Old Men if only for the sound of Anton Chigurh’s weapons. The silenced shotgun manages to cause damage in a very quietly load kind of way. More important is the crazy pfffft sound of that cattle gun as it takes people’s lives.
The Short Categories:
I haven’t seen or heard of any of these short films. As such I will make my predictions here through the scientific process of judging which movie in each category has the coolest title.
Best Documentary Short:
The Nominees:
Freeheld
La Corona / The Crown
Salim Baba
Sari’s Mother
Who Will Win?
Sari’s Mother
Best Live Action Short:
The Nominees:
At Night
The Substitute
The Mozart of Pickpockets
Tanghi Argentini
The Tonto Woman
Who Will Win?
The Mozart of Pickpockets
Best Animated Short:
The Nominees:
I Met the Walrus
Madame Tutli Putli
Even Pigeons Go To Heaven
My Love
Peter and the Wolf
Who Will Win?
I Met the Walrus
The Movie Vampire 